Ramification of ‘Banning PTI’ in Pakistan

Political parties are seen as sine qua non for modern democratic polity and play an important role in expressing the collective opinion and interest of the people. They are also considered to be the cornerstone of a democratic society in today’s time. E.E. Schattschneider, the noted American political scientist, in his masterpiece Party Government in 1942 argued that political parties created democracy and modern democracy is unthinkable without parties.¹ Even authoritarian regimes to some extent allow the functioning of political parties in the system to maintain the facade of democracy. The hybrid political system in Pakistan treats political parties and leaders quite differently. At present, an intense debate is taking place within Pakistan over the possible ban of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

The Move to Ban PTI

Although the discussion to ban PTI has been there for quite some time, especially after the 9 May incident in which PTI activists and supporters went on a rampage throughout the country targeting installations associated with security establishment soon after the arrest of Imran Khan by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in toshakhana (literally translates as house of treasures) corruption case. It found new credence on 15 July 2024 when Federal Minister for Information & Broadcasting Ataullah Tarar conducted a press conference to announce that a reference would be sent to the Supreme Court to impose ban on PTI.² He also made it clear that the PML-N led government would also initiate high treason proceeding under Article 6 of the constitution against ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan, ex-President Dr Arif Alvi and ex-deputy speaker Qasim Suri for dissolving national assembly in April 2022.³ A cabinet meeting is expected to be held soon to approve the move following which the reference would be sent to the apex court to decide the fate of PTI and trial of its leaders under Article 6 of the constitution.   

Criticism and Concern

The announcement came as a surprise for not only the opposition political parties, many within the ruling coalition felt uneasy and openly expressed their reservations over the move. It attracted severe criticisms from opposition political parties as well as civil society. The PTI and Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) vehemently criticized government’s plan to ban PTI and initiate proceedings against its leaders under Article 6 of the constitution. Instead, they demanded to invoke Article 6 against those flouting the constitution and breaking laws for the last two years.⁴  Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) in its press release on 15 July 2024 expressed shock and termed it as flagrant violation of Article 17 of the constitution and an enormous blow to democratic norms.⁵ The HRCP demanded to withdraw the unconstitutional decision and cautioned that the move would achieve nothing but the deeper polarization, political chaos and violence.⁶

Crack within the Ruling Coalition  

There appears to be a crack within the ruling coalition over the issue. PPP leaders in particular were vocal about not being consulted by PML-N before announcing such a drastic move which could have long-term consequences. Khurshid Shah, Mian Raza Rabbani, and Farhatullah Babar were particularly concerned about the development. Mian Raza Rabbani was of the view that the talk of banning a political party was against all norms of democracy and cautioned the government that such a move could add political chaos and bog down the already fragile economy.⁷ 

Farhatullah Babar on his social media account X wrote that talk of banning a political party or trial of a political leader for treason was “rubbish, unsustainable and compounding political crisis”. He compared the move with a self-imposed crisis unlikely to be sustained by the state itself.⁸ Of late, Punjab Governor Sardar Saleem Haider Khan voiced is opposition to the possible ban on PTI stating that proscribing any political party is inappropriate. He also underlined that it was the unilateral move of PML-N as he and his party PPP was not taken on board prior to the announcement of the decision.⁹ The governor indicated that the issue of ban on PTI would be discussed in the Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting of PPP to arrive at a decision to support or oppose the move in parliament.¹⁰

Some even in PML-N appear not to be comfortable with the timing of the decision either. For example, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif in an interview with Hum News’ Asma Shirazi for her programme Faisala Aap Ka admitted that PPP was not taken into confidence over the issue. He criticised PTI and Imran Khan for going to the extreme in attacking the nation and its institutions for political interests. He claimed that PTI did what India could not do in all these years.¹¹ He was of the view that the party should have been banned soon after 9 May incident. As the move drew strong criticism and unease from several quarters including ruling coalition, the government has adopted the strategy to build consensus among the coalition partners before final approval of the cabinet. 

Factors behind Government’s Plan to Ban PTI  

In order to understand what led the government to push for a ban, one needs to analyze recent developments carefully. The strong opposition to Imran Khan and his style of politics comes from the security establishment which is somewhat worried about the reliefs granted to him by the courts. Recently, Islamabad’s District and Sessions Court acquitted Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi in unlawful marriage case and ordered their release if not wanted in other cases.¹² Earlier, his sentences in two Toshakhana corruption cases were suspended. He is expected to get bail his bail approved in £190 million corruption case.¹³ This was the last legal hurdle to his release, however, due to his re-arrest in several other cases related to corruption and 9 May incidents put an end to the expectations for the time being. Although, Imran Khan’s prospects of getting out of jail without establishment’s nod are quite slim, but an alarm bell is ringing within the establishment the way he has been getting relief through judiciary. The politico-security elites have panicked and as per reports a new round of crackdown on PTI leaders is beginning. Detention of Moazzam Ali Khan Jatoi (MNA Mujaffargarh-III) and Sahibzada Muhammad Ameer Sultan (MNA, Jhang-III),¹⁴ and raid on residence of Sheharyar Afridi (MNA, Kohat) and few others is a case in point.

It appears that judiciary somehow has realized that some of its decisions in the recent past did not go well with most of the people at home and put a question mark on the institution’s ability to protect the constitution and stood up against the powerful security establishment trying to squeeze/curtail the political and democratic space to PTI. After a consistent legal battle in the judiciary, SIC/PTI has now increased its prospects of getting the due reserved seats for women and non-Muslims in National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies. On 12 July 2024, a 13 Judge full bench of the Supreme Court in a 8-5 majority judgment recognized PTI as a political party and held that it was entitled to have the reserved seats. The short order issued by the court categorically stated that “PTI was and is a political party…PTI shall be entitled to reserved seats for women and minorities in the National Assembly accordingly.”¹⁵

Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah, Justice Munib Akhtar, Justice Muhammad Ali Mazhar, Justice Ayesha A. Malik, Justice Athar Minallah, Justice Syed Hasan Azhar Rizvi, Justice Shahid Waheed and Justice Irfan Saadat Khan were the eight judges in favour of the PTI being given the reserved seats. However, Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa along with Justice Yahya Afridi, Justice Amin-ud-Din Khan, Justice Jamal Khan Mandokhail, and Justice Naeem Akhtar Afghan took a minority view which also declared PTI a political party. However, it declared that SIC did not fulfil the conditions prescribed for a political party under the enabling provisions of the constitution.¹⁶ The minority view, therefore, was not in favour of allotting reserved seats to SIC.

Given the current political dynamics, if SIC/PTI is finally awarded their share of reserved seats, they will emerge as the single largest group in the parliament making the business of the incumbent government quite challenging in the parliament. The government will also lose its “purported two-third majority” in both the houses of parliament. Therefore, the PML-N has filed review petition in the Supreme Court to reverse its decision on reserve seats on the grounds that the top court instead of interpreting the Constitution had actually entered the domain of legislation. The government also stated that SIC was the petitioner in the case but the PTI emerged as the beneficiary and got the relief without being a party in the case.

Conclusion

History suggests that ban on political parties in Pakistan has not worked in the past. It is unlikely to work today. Such bans were either lifted by the government later or the parties started operating with new names. As the political temperatures are rising again in the wake of the judgment of the Supreme Court over reserved seats and government's explicit intention to ban PTI, many believe that the situation could lead to another bout of prolong political tension having potential to culminate into a civil war. Given the ability of powerful security establishment to forcefully suppress any movement in the country, especially when some mainstream political forces aligning with it, civil war appears to be a distant possibility. However, one cannot rule out a political chaos occasioned by PTI’s techno-savvy social media team. In such a situation, it would be quite difficult for the ruling dispensation to focus on achieving economic targets and meet the conditions set by IMF regarding the recently concluded US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement. 

The views expressed here are his own.