Abstract
Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile marks a critical turning point in the country’s managed transition toward the 2026 elections. Following his acquittal from high-profile convictions, including the 2004 grenade attack, Rahman has transitioned from a political fugitive to a prime ministerial frontrunner. By positioning the BNP as a moderate-centrist force with a "Bangladesh First" doctrine, he seeks to balance domestic nationalist sentiments with regional security assurances, particularly toward India.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, returned to Bangladesh on 25 December, marking the end of a 17-year self-imposed exile. Described by many as “Crown Prince”, Rahman’s homecoming is not a random act of justice, but a deliberate political manoeuvre by the interim administration, under the force of circumstances, to secure a managed transition toward the February 2026 elections.
Rahman, the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is considered the frontrunner for the position of Prime Minister. Rahman has lived in London since 2008 and has led the BNP as acting chairman since 2018. Rahman’s self-exile began in 2008, when he flew to London for medical care following his 2007 arrest for corruption, an exit that many believed was a negotiated deal to remove him from politics. Since then, he never moved back.
From Conviction to Political Neutralisation
Rahman’s conviction and his absence from the Bangladesh political landscape serve as the classic case of elite exclusion, where the legal system was utilised not merely for justice but as a filter for political motives. The Bangladeshi State, led by the Hasina government, employed a decapitation strategy for Rahman’s political career. In 2018, Rahman was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for his alleged role in orchestrating the 21 August 2004 attack on Hasina's political rally that had left about 24 people dead and led to permanent hearing impairment for her.
The most immediate impact of Rahman’s exile was the label of "fugitive” from justice. Under Bangladeshi law, a person convicted in absentia loses several fundamental rights, including the right to appoint their own counsel or file appeals until they physically surrender to the court. Furthermore, Rahman faced a total media blackout in January 2015 due to the Bangladesh High Court order, which effectively banned the publication and broadcasting of Rahman's speeches in print, electronic, and social media. This served as operation switch-off for him, meant to end his political relevance within the country. These forced Rahman to lead the BNP through video conferencing for over a decade. While he successfully prevented the party from splintering, the in-absentia status created a tactical delay in decision-making within the party affecting its political activities, as the Hasina government continued to make it difficult for political opposition to operate without fear within the country.
From Exclusion to Reintegration
Rahman’s return appears like an act of a meticulously choreographed re-entry. The transition from 'fugitive' to 'frontrunner' was paved not by street agitation alone, but by a series of high-level compacts, most notably the June 2025 London meeting with Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus. The meeting was held against the backdrop of the Yunus-led interim government becoming entangled in several policy-related controversies, while radical elements attempted to push their anarchic agenda. In the face of such scenarios, it became imperative for the interim government to stabilise a fractured political landscape by integrating the largest opposition party, the BNP, into the transition process. And what can be a better way than rehabilitating Tarique Rahman, the party’s leader? Between August 2024 and December 2025, Rahman was acquitted of the most serious charges levelled against him, including the life sentence in the case of grenade attack on Hasina.
The festive manner in which his arrival was choreographed confirms a state-sanctioned welcome. By returning under a state-provided security umbrella and endorsing the reform-heavy 'July Charter,' Rahman has signalled that he is no longer an outsider challenging the system, but the primary beneficiary of the new system. In his address to the masses, adopting a rhetorical tone, he focused on an expansive, pluralistic vision of a “safe Bangladesh,” and invoked Martin Luther King's quote, saying, "I have a plan for the people of my country and for my country." This, in all likelihood, was a move designed to project stability to an anxious Hindu minority in the country facing a fresh wave of atrocities, the middle class, and the international community. Rahman has played his cards right, shown political maturity and appears to have made a break with the past political culture of retribution.
Electoral Arithmetic
As Bangladesh approaches the general election, announced to be held on 12 February 2026, the BNP will certainly be buoyed by Rahman’s presence. His homecoming provides the BNP with the institutional gravity required to withstand the spoiler potential of the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) and the ideological surge of Jamaat-e-Islami. For decades, Jamaat-e-Islami leveraged its disciplined vote bank to act as a decisive partner in the coalition governments. However, with the BNP’s vote share projected to soar to 42–45%, the BNP may no longer require a junior partner to cross the finishing line. This shift threatens to strip the Jamaat of its historical bargaining power, turning it from a strategic necessity into a purely political choice. As such, the BNP may choose to distance itself from Islamist politics to gain broader political support at home and acceptance abroad at the international level.
A New Diplomatic Equilibrium for New Delhi and Dhaka
Undoubtedly, the diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have not been smooth since the coming of the Yunus-led interim government. More so, it has been strained lately over the attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. Both countries have suspended visa services in several cities, including Delhi, and have also summoned each other's high commissioners to raise their security concerns; on 23 December, a heavy protest was carried out outside the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi against the brutal lynching of a Hindu man during recent violent protests in Bangladesh.
With BNP poised to emerge as the winner in the upcoming general elections, it is being touted as a "moderate-centrist" alternative to the more ideological Jamaat or perceptibly anti-India NCP. To win over a nationalist electorate that is currently swayed by anti-India sentiment (following the 2024 uprising), Rahman has adopted a “Bangladesh First” slogan. Rahman’s “Not Dilli, Not Pindi, Bangladesh before everything" rhetoric is a sophisticated signal that he is a rational actor willing to trade security assurances for economic cooperation. Previously, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir also assured that the BNP would not allow Bangladeshi soil to be used against India’s security interests. With the Awami League barred from contesting the upcoming elections, New Delhi also appears to have undergone a realistic reassessment. Earlier this month, India’s PM Narendra Modi expressed deep concern about the health of Khaleda Zia while also citing her contribution to the “public life” in Bangladesh. PM Modi also offered India’s “possible support” over her health issues. This specific outreach from PM Modi suggests building bridges with the New BNP, led by Tarique Rahman.
The return of Tarique Rahman serves as the final, necessary piece of a new political architecture ahead of the 2026 general elections and stands as definitive proof of a managed transition. The true measure of Bangladesh’s future, however, will not be the mere return of its exiled elite, but the resilience of the institutions they inherit. Success in the post-2024 era hinges on whether the 2026 elections can produce a governance model that finally outlives its winners.
Mohammed Shoaib Raza is a PhD scholar at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own.
Comments