The SCO Summit in Tianjin underscores India’s strategic multi-alignment amid US tariffs and sanctions straining ties, potentially pushing New Delhi toward Russia and China. While Beijing courts India, US policies risk a trilateral alignment, undermining Western influence in the Indo-Pacific and Global South.
Highlights
- Washington’s punitive tariffs (up to 50%) on Indian goods and energy restrictions, contrasted with Europe’s unpenalized Russian energy imports (e.g., €4.5 billion in H1 2025), erode trust and appear hypocritical.
- President Trump’s policies and social media posts (e.g., lamenting India-Russia drifting to China) accelerate alienation, as echoed by figures like John Bolton and Jake Sullivan, who warn of setbacks to decades of bipartisan US-India partnership.
- India hedges risks through diverse partnerships (e.g., Quad, BRICS, SCO), maintaining autonomy without anti-Western bias; its democratic model bolsters Western soft power in the Global South.
- Beijing welcomes Modi lavishly at the SCO Summit, condemns the Pahalgam terror attack, and restrains Pakistan to court India, positioning itself as a US alternative amid global shifts.
- Alienating India could form a Russia-India-China axis, undermining Quad and Indo-Pacific goals; past sanctions on Russia already deepened its China ties, and similar missteps with India would be catastrophic.
- Pre-summit Japan visit and statements emphasize India-China as “development partners, not rivals,” signalling to the West that decisions aren’t dictated by third parties like the US.
- Experts like Finland’s President Stubb urge respectful engagement with the Global South; failure risks losing influence to SCO and China, urging strategic patience over confrontation.
The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, on 31 August– 1 September 2025, came at a particularly critical geopolitical moment. The global order is shifting rapidly and unpredictably, with China under President Xi Jinping openly challenging US leadership, Russia facing unprecedented sanctions yet asserting itself under President Vladimir Putin, and US–India relations fraying after Washington imposed unilateral tariffs and sanctions on New Delhi. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, countries are recalibrating their strategies, hedging risks, and seeking alignments that can best safeguard their national interests.
An Illogical Targeting
One of the most significant strains in the system today lies in US policy toward India. Washington’s decision to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods and restrict energy transactions appears both selective and irrational, particularly when European states continue to import large volumes of Russian energy without facing similar penalties. In 2024, Europe imported a record 17.5 million tonnes of Russian LNG, a 14% increase from the previous year, with France, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands among the leading buyers. In just the first half of 2025, the EU purchased Russian LNG worth around €4.5 billion, while Russian pipeline gas still formed a significant share of Europe’s energy mix. This double standard not only undermines trust but also risks driving India away from the West at a time when its partnership is indispensable.
President Donald Trump’s policies have been particularly damaging. By making India a scapegoat for his administration’s failure to end the Russia–Ukraine war, he has deepened suspicions in New Delhi. Recently, Trump posted on his Truth Social account:
“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”
The irony is striking. On the one hand, Trump laments the possibility of India and Russia moving closer to China; on the other hand, his own tariff-heavy and confrontational policies are accelerating precisely that outcome.
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton echoed this concern, warning that Trump’s approach is undoing decades of progress in the relationship. “The White House has set US–India relations back decades, pushing Modi closer to Russia and China. Beijing has cast itself as an alternative to the US and Donald Trump,” Bolton said in a post on X.
India’s Strategy of Multi-Alignment
For decades, India has pursued an independent foreign policy built on “multi-alignment” — cultivating diverse partnerships while avoiding overdependence on any single power. This approach has gained even greater relevance in today’s volatile environment. By engaging with multiple partners, India hedges against systemic risks, diversifies its relationships, and maximizes strategic autonomy.
Importantly, India has not followed an anti-Western trajectory. On the contrary, its democratic institutions, role in forums such as BRICS, SCO, and the Global South, and its leadership in the Indo-Pacific have strengthened Western influence. India’s democratic rise has served as a model for developing nations, enhancing the soft power and normative appeal of the West itself. Selectively targeting New Delhi not only undermines India’s trust but also weakens the very influence the US seeks to preserve in Asia and beyond.
As, Jake Sullivan, America’s former National Security Advisor, warned that US credibility itself is on the line: “If friends around the world decide they can’t rely on us in any way, shape, or form, that is not in the long-term interest of the American people. Our word should be our bond.” He stressed that the US has long worked on a bipartisan basis to strengthen ties with India, “the world’s largest democracy,” and a country it must align with on technology, economics, and countering the strategic threat from China.
The China Factor
China has recognized this opening and has gone out of its way to court India. Beijing’s leadership and media outlets have made repeated overtures, seeking to draw India closer into its orbit. The SCO’s strong condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack is an example of this outreach, signaling Beijing’s willingness to align with Indian concerns. Notably, Modi was given a grand welcome in Tianjin, with Chinese state media highlighting India’s importance to the summit. Even Pakistan, often a source of tension in such forums, was noticeably restrained — reportedly at Beijing’s urging — to ensure the summit proceeded smoothly without confrontation. This underscores the strategic weight India now holds: the direction it chooses to lean in the evolving global order will significantly shift the balance of power.
For Washington, this should serve as a warning. Alienating India only plays into China’s hands. By exempting European states while penalizing India for Russian oil purchases, the US sends the wrong message — that America cannot be relied upon as a fair and consistent partner.
Strategic Consequences for the US
India is central to every American strategic vision in the Indo-Pacific, from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to successive US National Security and Indo-Pacific strategies.A drift in US–India ties, therefore, would undercut Washington’s own goals of balancing China and shaping regional norms.
The US has already made one grave mistake by heavily sanctioning Russia, driving Moscow deeper into Beijing’s embrace. Preventing a Russia–India–China geostrategic alignment has long been a central objective of US strategists. Yet current policies risk producing exactly that outcome. The price-cap mechanism on Russian oil, for instance, was originally designed to ensure that Russia remained engaged in global markets without becoming fully dependent on China. By disregarding this strategic logic, Trump’s approach has weakened US leverage while narrowing India’s options.
If Washington continues to squeeze India while expecting it to abandon long-standing partnerships, it risks bringing about the very “strategic nightmare” it has always feared — a trilateral alignment of Russia, China, and India.
Modi’s Signaling and India’s Priorities
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent diplomatic signaling illustrates India’s delicate balancing act. Before visiting China, he stopped in Japan — a close partner bilaterally and within the Quad. This was meant both to reassure the West of India’s priorities and to signal to Beijing that India’s strategic interests remain rooted in a multi-partner approach. As Reuters noted, Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba agreed to deepen “economic and security ties amid rising US tariffs on Indian goods and growing Chinese regional influence.”
In Tianjin, Modi struck a different note, describing India and China as “development partners, not rivals,” and reiterating that India’s strategic decisions “will not be shaped through third-country lenses.” Analysts highlighted that his choice to visit Tokyo before arriving in Tianjin, and his statement in Beijing that India’s relationship with China should not be viewed through a third-country prism, was a deliberate signal to the West—aimed at consolidating ties with trusted partners while engaging China from a position of balance.
The West should therefore avoid overreacting to such moves. India has not abandoned its strategic partnership with the US and its allies. Rather, it continues to pursue an independent course that safeguards its autonomy while strengthening global stability.
A Call for Strategic Patience
The US must resist policies that alienate India and instead adopt a long-term perspective. Isolating Russia was a mistake that has already shifted the balance of power in China’s favour. Repeating that mistake with India would be catastrophic. Trump’s confrontational tariff regime and erratic diplomacy risk undoing decades of carefully cultivated trust and partnership.
India remains one of the most important partners for the West — not only because of its size and economic potential but also because of its democratic institutions, normative appeal, and leadership role in the Global South. Squeezing India serves only China’s interests and undermines America’s own.
This concern has also been voiced internationally. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb warned the West, particularly the United States, that it risks “losing the game” to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) if it fails to pursue a more respectful and cooperative foreign policy toward the Global South, especially countries like India. “My message to you, my European colleagues, and particularly to the US, is that if we don’t engage in a more cohesive and dignified foreign policy, especially with regard to Global South countries such as India, we will lose,” Stubb said.
The SCO Summit in Tianjin highlighted India’s pivotal role in global realignments — and warned that US missteps risk driving New Delhi toward Russia and China. If Washington fails to recalibrate its approach, the strategic alignment it has long sought to prevent — between India, Russia, and China — may become a reality. And if that happens, it will not be because of New Delhi’s policies, but because of Washington’s missteps.
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Imran Khurshid is Associate Research Fellow at ICPS. He is a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Kashmir and specialises in Indo-Pacific studies and South Asian security issues. The views expressed here are his own.
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