The recent Pakistani move to push out Afghan refugees seems to have been less carefully thought through because it could jeopardise informal relationship between the Afghan people and the Pakistan government at the popular level on the one hand and rile the Pakistani Pashtun population in the border areas on the other. Rather than containing the TTP, this move may actually further legitimize its Islamist campaign against the Pakistan state.
An Unquiet Border
Earlier in September 2023, the Torkham border point was closed following an exchange of gunfire between the security forces of both countries. Torkham serves as a crucial link for the movement of people and goods between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Despite local reports of gunshots near the Khyber Pass, there were no documented casualties, leaving the exact cause of the confrontation uncertain. Nasrullah Khan, an official in Torkham, confirmed that Pakistani and Afghan authorities discussed the issue in an attempt to de-escalate tensions. The Torkham crossing, vital for travel and trade, has experienced intermittent closures, including a notable suspension in February that stranded cargo-laden trucks on both sides. Abdul Mateen Qani, a Taliban spokesperson stated joint investigations and collaborative efforts were underway to prevent similar incidents in future. Pakistani authorities reported numerous trucks laden with perishable goods awaiting the reopening of the Torkham crossing.
Such border tensions can be contextualized within the recent spars between Afghanistan and Pakistan, following the Taliban's resurgence in Kabul two years ago. Ever since, Pakistan has been accusing Afghanistan of sheltering Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. Shortly after the border closure, Pakistan's caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, made a statement alleging that the TTP militants were in possession of US military equipment! The Pakistani Special Representative on Afghanistan Asif Durrani went on record saying that TTP attacks on Pakistan along the borders had increased, despite Talibanâs claims of arresting about 200 TTP militants in Afghanistan. Durrani also stated that Pakistan would expect "that the kind of peace they have brought in their land should also contribute to peace in our borderlands, and those TTP people who are taking shelter in Afghanistan either should be returned to Pakistan or be neutralizedâ.
Against this backdrop, the caretaker government, clearly at the behest of the security establishment of the country, which rules the roost now, decided to throw out âundocumented illegal foreignersâ (read Afghan refugees) from Pakistan, because they allegedly posed a threat to national security. It is widely believed that this step is aimed at conveying to the Taliban, Pakistanâs sense of displeasure about their disinclination to act decisively against the TTP. That it has disregarded requests from international community to reconsider its decision suggests that Pakistan is making a break with its past policy of adopting a humanitarian and compassionate approach to the refugee issue, which had earned Pakistan international sympathy and acclaim.
Evicting Afghan refugees
A significant number of Afghan refugees and migrants currently residing in Pakistan are now in the process of being pushed back to their home country. Pakistan's interim interior minister, Sarfaraz Bugti, officially set October 31 as the ultimatum for the departure of Afghan refugeess, being cleverly categorized as 'undocumented' refugees and migrants, to mean that the move was not specifically aimed at flushing out the Afghans.
Gone are the days when Pakistan was taking credit for hosting large number of Afghan refugees as a proof of its humanitarian concern for people in its immediate western neighbourhood affected by unceasing violence and civil war. Official figures illustrate Pakistan's demographic landscape, accommodating over four million foreign nationals, predominantly consisting of Afghan asylum seekers over four decades, a trend initiated by the Soviet invasion in the 1980s and amplified by the recent resurgence of the Taliban in 2021. Recent estimates by Pakistani authorities suggest that  between 600,000 to 800,000 individuals have migrated to Pakistan recently, with a total of nearly 1.7 million residing in Pakistan today lacking formalized legal documentation.
Following pressure from the Pakistani state, around 200,000 Afghan immigrants have voluntarily begun the repatriation process in October-November, opting for designated border crossings such as Torkham in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Chaman in the Balochistan provinces. This enforcement of the deportation order occurs amid a noticeable increase in armed attacks within Pakistan, attributed by the government to groups and individuals operating out of Afghanistan, a claim contradicted by the Afghan Taliban.
A crucial aspect requiring consideration pertains to the well-being of these Afghan repatriates. The documented restrictions imposed by the Afghan Taliban, especially concerning the curtailment of women's liberties, raise legitimate concerns. Additionally, there is a legitimate apprehension that certain returnees may be susceptible to recruitment by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), potentially involving them in acts of terrorism. In conclusion, the deportation of Afghans could precipitate a humanitarian crisis, the repercussions of which may extend well beyond the immediate context.
The Pakistani move does not seem to unruffle the Taliban much. The Taliban have officially expressed their surprise at the âinhumaneâ policy of the Pakistan government at this juncture. They have also expressed their concerns about Pakistan imposing restrictions on how much money and assets the refugees could carry back during their forced journey back home. In a recent meeting between the Taliban acting Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi's these issues were raised with Pakistan's caretaker foreign minister Jalil Abbas Jilani, who conveyed the message that âfull potential for regional trade and connectivity can be harnessed with collective action against terrorismâ, which meant indirectly that the Taliban must act against the TTP first for healthy economic interaction to take shape in future.
The recent Pakistani move to push out Afghan refugees seems to have been less carefully thought through because it could jeopardise informal relationship between the Afghan people and the Pakistan government at the popular level on the one hand and rile the Pakistani Pashtun population in the border areas on the other. Rather than containing the TTP, this move may actually further legitimize its Islamist campaign against the Pakistan state.
Dr. Syed Eesar Mehdi is a Research Fellow at International Centre for Peace Studies (ICPS), New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own.
