Understanding the Uptick of Militancy in Kashmir

The escalation of militancy in the Kashmir region constitutes a multifaceted and intricate phenomenon, characterized by a confluence of factors such as alterations in terror tactics, external backing, and the emergence of a mixture of foreign and indigenous terrorism. Recent developments indicate a discernible shift in the geography of insurgency, with the Pir Panjal region assuming heightened significance. This commentary endeavors to examine the evolving dynamics of militancy in Kashmir, positing that the surge in violent activities can be ascribed to strategic modifications adopted by militant groups, coupled with external support emanating from Pakistan, designed ostensibly to redirect attention away from domestic concerns. By examining the interplay of these elements, this analysis seeks to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the contemporary landscape of militancy/terrorism in Kashmir. [The terms militancy and terrorism have been used alternately to mean the same phenomenon of senseless violence witnessed in Kashmir throughout the article.]

Changing Tactics

Terror tactics in Kashmir have undergone a significant evolution, playing a pivotal role in the escalating conflict. Initially dominated by senseless terrorism that gave rise to a culture of fear, in recent years, there has been a discernible shift towards asymmetrical warfare and guerilla tactics. This strategic change has been mainly because of the drying up of local support base and the stakes people of Kashmir have in peace. The changing tactic is marked by an increasing reliance on hit-and-run attacks and targeted ambushes. Asymmetric warfare represents a departure from conventional methods, reflecting a more adaptive and elusive approach by militants, driven by a strategic imperative to maximize its impact while minimizing direct confrontations with security forces, reducing the prevalence of terrorism in a wider geographical terrain.

The hit-and-run attacks and ambushes allow militants to exploit their knowledge of the local terrain, striking swiftly and retreating before facing significant resistance. This tactical adaptation frustrates security forces, creating an environment of uncertainty and complicating the efforts of the security forces to predict and counteract movements by militants effectively. This underscores a sense of desperation among certain factions but at the same time it also reflects a disturbing level of ongoing radicalization within the militant ranks. At a moment like this, suicide attacks which were prevalent earlier may have stopped for the moment but it could also become a preferred method for militants seeking to inflict maximum casualties while evading direct engagements, intensifying the conflict, and posing formidable challenges for the security forces. Such attacks in populated areas could result in a tragic loss of innocent lives and foster an atmosphere of fear and insecurity, complicating efforts to maintain stability in the region.

The shift towards asymmetric warfare blurs the line between the combatants and the civilians, increasing the risk for civilian populations, who often get caught in the crossfire. The evolution of such militant tactics in Kashmir represents a strategic response to changing ground realities and advancements in counterinsurgency measures. The adoption of asymmetric warfare challenges conventional efforts aimed at conflict resolution, emphasizing the urgency of developing comprehensive strategies that account for the complex nature of contemporary militant activities in the region.

External Support from Pakistan

Pakistan's intricate involvement in the Kashmir issue stands as an extensively documented facet of the region's tumultuous history. The upsurge in militancy/terror in Kashmir is deeply intertwined with Pakistan's strategic interests, manifested through its consistent provision of both overt and covert support to militant groups in the region. This support serves a multitude of objectives for Pakistan, ranging from challenging Indian authority in Kashmir to diverting attention from pressing domestic issues and upholding the international prominence of the Kashmir issue. The dimensions of Pakistan's support for terror groups extend beyond providing a safe haven. Pakistan offers substantial financial assistance, supplies weaponry, and provides training to these groups, fostering their empowerment and enabling the sustained and intensified execution of activities in the region.

Despite the fencing of the line of control (LoC), infiltrations are taking place thanks to Pakistan army using Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) as a launching pad for terror, exacerbating the security situation in Kashmir. The terrorists wreaking havoc in Poonch and Rajouri area today are being provided full support by Pakistan army for its cross-border operations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

Motivated by a complex geopolitical calculus, Pakistan's support for a multitude of terror groups over the years has been rooted in its longstanding strategy of challenging Indian authority in Kashmir. By backing these groups now with a changed tactic, after the abrogation/amendment of Art 370, Pakistan aims at re-establishing its influence in Jammu and Kashmir and undermine India's control. Additionally, the tactic of diverting attention from domestic issues by keeping the Kashmir issue alive serves as a means for Pakistan to consolidate internal support and distract attention from the internal challenges.

Internationally, Pakistan tried to leverage the Kashmir issue strategically to garner attention and support, positioning itself as a champion of the rights of Kashmiris to gain diplomatic and moral standing. Despite consistent calls from the international community for Pakistan to stop its support for terror groups operating in Kashmir, the issue remains a contentious point in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. This contributes to longstanding tension and periodic escalations in the region. The multifaceted nature of Pakistan's involvement in the Kashmir conflict has to be understood well to develop an effective response to the emerging terror challenge in J&K. Pakistan has not only continued with its efforts to perpetuate terror, but also tried its best to condition and spoil mindsets of the people in the valley. That is why after a welcome decline in terror activities post-abrogation (of Art 370), there is an uptick in the margins of the valley today. The subterranean information warfare that goes on along with re-start of terror activities to change the mindset in J&K and re-generate an indigenous base for terrorism must be identified and countered. The use of technology (especially drones) to supply drugs and weapons to has been on the rise. The role of over ground workers (OGWs), with no evidence of any prior contact with terrorist outfits, in fomenting terror is increasingly being isolated as another area of concern.

Addressing the root causes of the conflict necessitates a nuanced understanding of the interplay between historical grievances of people often amplified and exaggerated by sponsors of terror from outside, India’s national interest and territorial integrity, and the Pakistani aspirations for securing its geo-political influence and attracting international attention by keeping India embroiled in a chronic conflict in Kashmir. International efforts to facilitate dialogue and resolution must acknowledge and navigate these complexities to forge a path towards sustainable peace in the troubled region.

Pir Panjal Region: A Shifting Battlefield

The Kashmir Valley, historically the epicenter of militancy and terrorism in the region, has witnessed relative calm in recent years, while the Pir Panjal region has emerged as a new focal point for militant activities. This transition is not arbitrary; rather, it is a calculated move orchestrated by sponsors of terror in Kashmir seeking to exploit the challenging terrain and divert attention away from traditional conflict zones. The Pir Panjal range, known for its dense forests and difficult topography, provides an ideal environment for militants to regroup, train, and execute operations.

This geographical shift signifies a tactical adaptation by militant groups, capitalizing on the unique features of the region to sustain and amplify their insurgent activities. The challenging terrain acts as a double-edged sword. It offers militants an advantageous setting to conceal their movements, regroup away from the prying eyes of security forces, and plan coordinated operations. The dense forests and mountainous terrain provide ample opportunities for establishing hidden camps and training facilities, which can prolong insurgency in the area. Secondly, the difficult topography presents a formidable challenge for security forces countering the insurgency, limiting the effectiveness of conventional military operations, and necessitating a recalibration of counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism strategies.

The ability of the terrorist today to leverage this challenging terrain not only grants them a tactical advantage but also poses logistical challenges for security forces attempting to track and neutralize them. As security forces intensify their efforts in traditional conflict zones, militants display strategic nimbleness by relocating to areas with more favourable conditions for their operations, ensuring their continued relevance and operational effectiveness.

Addressing the insurgency in the Pir Panjal region requires a multifaceted approach for security forces. This includes not only an understanding of the intricate topography but also the development of specialized tactics suited to the unique challenges posed by the Pir Panjal range. Intelligence gathering becomes paramount as security forces strive to stay ahead of militant movements and disrupt their operations effectively.

Transition from Indigenous to Trained Foreign Terrorists

The shift from indigenous to foreign terrorists in the Kashmir region is also evident in the evolving landscape of terrorist activities. Over the past five years, security forces have effectively neutralized more than 1,000 militants, leading to a notable weakening of leadership within major terrorist organizations. Presently, approximately 80 militants remain, with over 50 identified as part of Pakistani cadres affiliated with Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).

Despite experiencing relative calm between 2003 and 2021, the Pir Panjal region has undergone a significant rise in encounters in recent years, signaling a notable transition in the nature of militancy/terrorism from indigenous to foreign influences. The shift in the geography of the conflict started in the middle of 2021 but it has picked up momentum in last two years. The unfortunate incident on 21 December 2023 in the Poonch-Rajouri area, involving the ambush and killing of four soldiers by unidentified militants, further underscored the shift in dynamics. Subsequently, four villagers, initially held by the Army for questioning, were discovered dead the following day, exhibiting signs of multiple injuries. This tragic event echoes a similar occurrence in November of the preceding year during an anti-militancy operation in Rajouri's Kalakote, where five soldiers, including two captains, lost their lives.

Earlier, in April-May 2023, ten army soldiers had lost their lives in twin attacks during anti-militancy operations in the same region. Notably, the Pir Panjal region, encompassing Rajouri and parts of Reasi districts, has witnessed a surge in militancy. Security sources attribute the frequent ambushes by militants in this region to the heightened level of militant activities.

Conclusion

It would require a concerted effort on the part of security forces to identify the shift in terror tactics, strengthen their intelligence in the new geographical area where the terror activities are more visible. Simultaneously, the area spanning the LoC should be better monitored both through human and technical intelligence. The local grievances in the region surrounding the Pir Panjal Range especially on the LoC side should be mapped and addressed to preclude the possibility of locals joining the terror efforts being sponsored and executed by agencies across the LoC. There should not also be any relaxation on the security-preparedness in the calmer areas of the valley where there is zero acceptance of terrorism today.

The responsive governance system that has been promised to the people and been in operation since the withdrawal of the special status following the amendment of Art 370 must continue with due care taken to address allegations of corruption by the administrative machinery. This will take care of the existing ecosystem that detests violence in any form. Equally important to take developmental initiatives across the Shamsbari Range into the Tangdhar, Keran, Macchal and Davar-Gurez, where the population has a definite pro-India outlook despite their proximity to PoJK. The growing menace of drugs trafficking and drug-use in this region will have to be tackled with both the firm hand of law-enforcement agencies and an imaginative rehabilitation plan, which is in the domain of the civilian administration.

At the societal plane too, there is a need to work with the civil society to generate the right impulses that negate efforts by external forces inviting people to choose violence over democratic means to address their grievances. This will neutralize the corrosive effects of trans-national terrorism being marketed in the name of Jihad by sub-continental arms of Al Qaeda and Islamic State. It will require a whole-of-the-government approach to stop the cross-border terror-plan being executed at the moment from spreading to other parts of J&K.

Dr. Syed Eesar Mehdi is an Associate Research Fellow at International Centre for Peace Studies, New Delhi, India. He is currently stationed in the valley.