Bangladesh’s 13th Parliamentary Election marks a return to genuine multiparty politics after years of disputed or one‑sided polls. A simultaneous referendum approved major constitutional reforms, strengthening the BNP’s mandate after its sweeping victory. With over two‑thirds of seats, the BNP must address corruption concerns, reassure minorities and Awami League supporters, and respond to youth unemployment. Economic stabilisation, export revival and contentious trade agreements will demand urgent attention. Externally, BNP’s “Sobar Agey Bangladesh” doctrine will be tested amid strained India ties, stalled development projects and impending water‑sharing negotiations. How the party navigates these pressures will shape Bangladesh’s political trajectory.
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The 13th Parliamentary Election in Bangladesh marks a return to the multiparty competition that has historically defined Bangladesh’s political transitions, with the notable exceptions of the onesided 1996 election to the Fifth National Assembly and the 2014 and 2024 elections, both held under the Awami League. Although the 2018 polls were formally multiparty, they were widely regarded as having been rigged by the Awami League. The latest election therefore represents a significant restoration of public confidence in the electoral process.
The much-awaited political transition this time round has been accompanied by a referendum on Constitutional reforms – known as the July charter in Bangladesh. These reform proposals are clubbed together into four broad categories and were put into referendum where people were asked to vote for ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. As per the final statistics, out of the total 70,640,056 votes cast, there were 48,074,429 (68.1%) ‘Yes’ votes and 22,565,627 (31.9%) ‘No’ votes.
BNP’s landslide victory, with 212 seats out of 297 declared so far, for the coalition led by it, will give the party an upper hand in the proposed reforms, especially on those proposals BNP had its reservation. The most important will be the proposals on which BNP had a disagreement with Jamaat, which will now lead the opposition alliance with 77 seats. At the same time the burden of expectations of the voters lies with the BNP as a party securing two-third majority. How will it navigate these expectations that range from political, and economic to social will determine the future of the country as well as that of the BNP under the new leadership of Tarique Rahman.
Domestically, BNP would need to shed its image as a party of people (some of them at least) involved in corruption, extortion and occupying small businesses. Though the BNP has expelled around 7000 of its cadres on the ground of serious charges of corruption, it needs to be careful not to emulate the outgoing Awami League which was accused of corruption, high-handedness and gagging of the media. Second, it needs to keep in mind the interests of those, especially the Awami League supporters and the minorities, who came out to vote for the party. Third, the party also needs to focus on the aspiration of the youth that is defining Bangladesh politics today. Unemployment is a major issue here. Rather than providing only monetary help, as Jamaat was promising to do, it needs to engage the youth in gainful employment. Lastly, BNP would have to spend a great deal of its energy attending to the economy, which might have been steadied by the interim administration, but needs a vital push forward. Export that forms the backbone of the economy has declined. The recent Trade Agreement with the US, which requires Bangladesh to import cotton yarn from the US to be used in producing garments that would be exported to the US, remains a concern. So also several other provisions of the trade deal signed by the interim regime. Proposed ‘Agreement’ with the UAE-based port operator DP world to handle the New Mooring Container terminal in the Chittagong Port which led to the strike by Port workers is shelved for now, but it will come up for discussion.
For the BNP, ‘Bangladesh First of All’ (Sobar Agey Bangladesh) slogan would guide its foreign policy. Its manifesto said, beyond Bangladesh borders it has friends not masters. It underlined Bangladesh’s sovereignty, national interest, national security and peoples’ welfare and peoples’ will. While BNP emphasised on ‘Equality’, ‘Mutual Respect’, ‘Trust’ and understanding in its relations with neighbours, (especially India) other political parties have also emphasised on issue of dignity in foreign policy. It is not clear how the BNP will navigate the complex regional and global geopolitics, where bargaining and compromise remain the guiding principles for states. BNP also speaks of border killings and push-ins and its leaders have said they will take legal measures against any foreign nationals living in Bangladesh illegally. It is important for Bangladesh and India to look at the issue of illegal migration and trafficking that take place across the porous border. Most significantly, the Ganges Water sharing Treaty signed in 1996 for thirty years is going to expire this year. Water sharing issues will dominate India Bangladesh relations and there would be pressure on BNP to sign the Teesta.
India has several development projects in Bangladesh for which it has extended US$ 8 billion credit line apart from US$ 500 million credit line for defence. After the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government those Indians who were providing technical support, especially the project engineers, left Bangladesh due to the prevailing security situation and prevailing anti-Indianism. This year, just before elections in Bangladesh nine senior Indian officials from the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) deputed to Rampal joint India Bangladesh Maitree Power Station left fearing violence. It would be important to resume these projects. Already, the proposed Indian economic zone projects at Mirsarai and Mongla have been cancelled in January this year by the interim regime; these projects were idling for ten years in spite of allotment of land.
All in all, India-Bangladesh relations would require a repair. Both the BNP and the new opposition party have emphasised that the relations with India would remain crucial; it will be important to see whether BNP and India will overcome the trust deficit to build an enduring relationship.
Dr Smruti S Pattanaik is Research Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. The views expressed in the comment are her own.
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