A significant transformation is occurring within Europe, particularly in the European Union as Trump assumes second term in office. Europhiles advocate for enhancing the institution's powers to achieve greater strategic autonomy for Europe. Conversely, Eurosceptics aim to reshape the institution's liberal principles to reflect a more conservative, Christian, and ethnically homogeneous Europe….Among other things, two critical factors are poised to influence Europe in the near future. The upcoming German elections, set for February 2025, will be particularly significant, as they represent a crucial moment for the far-right, with the outcome likely to have far-reaching implications for the continent. Lastly, Trump's interactions with Russia and the ongoing conflict will also play a vital role in shaping Europe's future direction. At present, EU executives are proceeding with caution and exercising patience.
Donald Trump has resumed the American Presidency after a hiatus of four years. His first tenure was marked with many disruptive yet calculated decisions that amused his partners and rivals alike— whether it was his open threat to his most important transatlantic allies on matters of security or taking unconventional steps, such as walking the talk with the North Korean president. After eight years of his first presidency, the world now has a playbook on Trump and his mannerisms.
It is in this context that the evolving relationship between the US and its European allies (often termed together as the West) need to be re-explored. Post World War II, “the West” has been characterized as one of the most enduring alliances that the modern world has seen. Comprising of partners on both sides of the Atlantic and mainly anchored by the United States of America, it has been so far a successful venture as it helped create global institutions, won the Cold War, and also established American hegemony in the form of the ‘unipolar moment’. The leaders of Europe and the USA shared a cordial relationship after the Cold War where the security guarantees provided by NATO were extended to post-Soviet countries. These countries were also the new entrants in the European Union, which as a supranational body has gained much authority in Europe.
In the decades that followed the end of the Cold War, both the US and the EU, despite their core values of market economy and democracy, have grown apart, as the EU sided with a welfare model of market economy while the US promoted a classical liberal economy. Nonetheless, Donald Trump’s ascendence to US Presidency has ruptured this enduring alliance between the transatlantic partners. He is tough with his allies on security, trade deficit and many other issues. Europe is no exception in this regard. This comment seeks to explore how this emerging relationship would impact Europe. Will it push the continent on a path of decline concerning the institutions that it has built will succumb to the pressure posed by President Trump and his like-minded European allies or it will help in the rise of Europe another centre of power?
Europe’s Furies
During Trump’s first term in office, Europe was going ahead with manifold crises which included migration issues, a tough divorce between Britain and the EU, and the rise of the far-right in European politics. The repercussions of these issues have begun to manifest within the European Union. Far-right populism, which was previously relegated to the periphery, has gained significant traction over the past eight years. The experience of the Covid pandemic has heightened awareness among European nations regarding their supply chain vulnerabilities in relation to China. Additionally, during Donald Trump's first term, European allies recognized that his administration in Washington adopted a more transactional approach to the Atlantic security alliance, which has historically been the foundation of US-Europe relations. In this context, as Russia's extensive invasion of Ukraine threatens energy security, Europe is actively exploring new strategies to address its energy requirements. Currently, Europe buys some of its energy from the USA which Mr. Trump has asked Europe to increase. As Trump embarks on his second term in office, Europe’s reliance on US is likely to grow on the energy front.
In light of these circumstances, President Trump's current administration may present two significant challenges for Europe. The first challenge pertains to how to navigate his transactional stance on economic and security policies, while the second concerns the potential effects on the broader social and political landscape within Europe. Regarding the first issue, the European Union has formulated a strategy to tackle economic concerns, opting for a form of 'chequebook diplomacy' to respond to Trump's primary grievance regarding the trade deficit between the United States and Europe. Additionally, NATO allies in Europe have begun to increase their defence spending to meet the commitment of allocating two percent of their GDPs to defence.
Several NATO countries have significantly increased their defence expenditures in response to growing security concerns, particularly following Russia's actions in Ukraine and calls from the US for greater burden-sharing. Lithuania has committed to raising its defence spending to 5-6 per cent of GDP by 2026, becoming the first NATO nation to reach such levels. Germany has met NATO's 2 per cent GDP defence spending target in 2024, marking a major shift in its defence policy. Poland has emerged as a leading spender, allocating approximately 4.12 per cent of its GDP to military investments. The Baltic states— Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia— have collectively pledged to increase their defence budgets to at least 2.5 per cent of GDP. Additionally, European NATO members and Canada have recorded an 11 per cent real increase in defence spending in 2023, showcasing a broader commitment to strengthening military capabilities across the alliance. These efforts collectively aim to bolster NATO's deterrence and defence posture amid evolving global security threats.
The second impact of Trump’s presidency on Europe will be more decisive and long-lasting. The MAGA movement pushed for a neo-conservative, right-wing populist turn for the USA which is clearly at odds with the liberal principles of individual liberty and human rights, core of Western values. Trump has now started with orders on curbing migration, ending abortions, identifying only two genders, and ending birthright citizenship in the US. The right-wing populist leaders of Europe also want to implement these policies, which are strictly against the principles of the EU. These leaders are enthusiastic about Trump’s return to the Whitehouse. Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban has celebrated Trump’s oath mentioning, ‘Now it's our turn to shine! It’s our turn to occupy Brussels’. Orban famously called for making an ‘illiberal’ Europe which is similar to what Trump has been doing in the USA. Tech Mogul Elon Musk's involvement in European affairs has also made the scenario more complex as he has aggressively attacked the Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on his policy towards the grooming gangs in the UK. He has also done a podcast with Germany’s far-right AfD something that he had done earlier while collaborating with President Trump during his election campaigns.
A Clash of Values and Narratives
The EU which is known as a normative power and prides itself on its progressive legislations based on liberal values and individual rights is facing a lot of criticism from the far-right Eurosceptic parties that want to amend these provisions. With Trump’s re-entry into the central political landscape of the West, there will be a clash in the values and narratives. While critics have always observed the EU as a faceless executive run by bureaucrats, which is not entirely true, a call for a more direct form of democratic engagement will be demanded soon. The EU stands as a testament to the enduring legacy of Franco-German collaboration, and the current administrations in these countries seek to maintain the institution's resilience against pressures from both domestic and external forces.
Possible Scenarios
There is a churning going on inside Europe and particularly in the EU. While the Europhiles (supporters of the EU) would like to equip the institution with more power so that the strategic autonomy of Europe could be achieved, Eurosceptics on the other hand would like to mould the institution's liberal ethos for a more white, conservative and Christian Europe. President of France, Emmanual Macron who has been the most experienced leader of Europe in dealing with Trump has been quick in understanding the tides as he invited the President-elect, Trump to the reopening of Notre Dame. The EU is also making overtures to its ex-member and one of the most important actors in European affairs, the UK, as its Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been invited to an informal summit of EU leaders focused on security and defence. Along with it, some other very important factors are going to impact Europe in recent times. The most immediate one will be the German elections, scheduled to happen in February 2025, it will also be a pivotal movement for the far-right, and its win or loss will be decisive for the continent. Lastly, Trump’s engagement with Russia and the trajectory of war will also be another decisive factor in Europe’s future course of action. For now, the executives of the EU are treading their paths carefully and biding their time.
*Harsh Pandey is a Ph.D. Candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is also a Life Member of the International Centre for Peace Studies.
