The persistent mismanagement by the Pakistan military and the federal government in the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and throughout the region may soon result in calls for greater autonomy. These feelings are expected to intensify unless the Pakistan military and federal government reconsider their strategies in AJK.
On November 2024, the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), witnessed large protests in response to a presidential ordinance known as ‘Peaceful Assembly and Public Ordinance 2024’. This ordinance mandated that any public assembly in ‘AJK’ required prior written permission submitted a week in advance to the local district magistrate. The legislation faced significant opposition from various civil society groups and political organizations, including the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), National Awami Party (NAP), and National Students Federation (NSF). The following day, protests intensified, leading to violent clashes between the state forces and the civilians’, in which reportedly 30 individuals, including eight police officers, sustained injuries. Sensing the growing resentment, the federally controlled government in Muzaffarabad used the ‘AJK’ Supreme Court to halt the contentious presidential ordinance for fear of rising civil unrest, leading to a temporary de-escalation. However, local protesters expressed their dissatisfaction with the court's decision and demanded a complete repeal of the ordinance.
The recent extensive protests and the government's acquiescence to the demands of the demonstrators are indicative of a broader trend of civil unrest in 'AJK' that has been intermittently escalating over the past two years, during which the state has occasionally resorted to violent measures. Earlier in May 2024, ‘AJK’ experienced widespread protests organized and led by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC). The JAAC, an umbrella organization with a large appeal among the locals, represents a range of local interests’ groups and civil society organizations, including traders, transporters, lawyers, students, and other political regimes, was established in May 2023 in response to widespread protests that first erupted in Rawalakote district over the rising costs of basic commodities like wheat and flour.
These protests gradually extended to Muzaffarabad and Mirpur districts after the government further increased electricity tariffs, further fueling the public anger. The civilian protest movement, which featured marches, protests, sit-ins, chakka jam strikes throughout ‘AJK’, including the blockade at highways entry and exit points, brought attention to the rising economic disparity between ‘AJK’ and Pakistan and highlighted the governance failures. The JAAC asserted that 'AJK' plays a crucial role in the energy production of Pakistan while receiving inadequate compensation for the local population. Alongside their requests for reduced electricity tariffs and subsidies on essential commodities, the demonstrators also advocated for increased 'autonomy' for 'AJK', which encompasses enhanced authority over its resources and governance. In light of the increasing civil unrest and the growing scale of protests, the government of 'AJK' commenced negotiations with the JAAC and, in the meantime, partially acquiesced to their demands. This wave of protests ultimately led the federal government in Islamabad to declare a 'relief package,' which encompassed a grant of PKR 23 billion ($82 million) to the 'AJK' government, along with subsidies for wheat and electricity prices.
The occurrences highlight the persistent challenges faced by the region concerning economic inequalities and governance shortcomings, illustrating the local population's call for more just policies and increased self-governance. Although both the 'AJK' and federal governments have implemented temporary measures to alleviate local issues, such as providing relief from elevated electricity expenses and addressing economic hardships, the protests are progressively transforming into a more extensive rights movement that embodies the enduring frustrations of the people towards both the 'AJK' and the Pakistani government.
What are the people protesting against?
The demonstrations are directed at both the local and federal authorities. Residents of 'AJK' have never before engaged in protests of such magnitude, fervor, and intensity. In the 2021 elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party achieved a decisive victory, securing 33 out of 52 seats and establishing the government. However, in 2022, the Supreme Court in 'AJK' disbanded the democratically elected PTI administration. Consequently, a federally appointed regime was established in Muzaffarabad, following the defection of several PTI legislators and the formation of a coalition with the PPP and PML-N. This intervention by the 'AJK' and federal governments in political transitions has led to significant discontent among the local population, who feel that their fundamental rights are being overlooked.
The Interim Constitution of 1974 for ‘AJK’ laid down the groundwork for its political and governmental structure. This constitution was enacted with the aim of enhancing governance and security in AJK until the status of Jammu and Kashmir could be resolved, as it says, in accordance with United Nations resolutions. Given the historical context and its unique political status, ‘AJK’ was expected to develop distinct administrative and economic systems that would set it apart from mainland Pakistan. However, successive administrations in both Islamabad and Muzaffarabad have consistently failed to uphold their promises. The inflation resulting from the governmental transitions in Pakistan and ‘AJK’ in 2022 and 2023 pushed the populace to their limits. Many residents of ‘AJK’ feel that the federal government is persistently exploiting the region's resources without delivering significant benefits in return. For example, the electricity produced in AJK is transmitted to other regions of Pakistan, leaving local residents without adequate power supply.
In recent years, ‘AJK’ has faced significant political neglect, exploitation, and depletion of its natural resources by the Pakistani government and military regimes. Essential infrastructure, including roads, healthcare, education, and mobile connectivity, remains severely underdeveloped in ‘AJK.’ Furthermore, the persistent interference of the Islamabad government and the Pakistani military in the region's political affairs and resource management has worsened the situation, potentially leading to a security crisis in the region.
The current circumstances could escalate beyond mere protests over administrative grievances if the prime minister of ‘AJK’ fails to engage the JAAC in meaningful discussions to resolve the issues faced by the populace. The pervasive political vacuum, lawlessness, despair, anger, and economic instability that have plagued Pakistan in recent years are evident in the frequent violent protests occurring in ‘AJK.’ In response to the rising influence of the JAAC, the government has implemented a presidential decree prohibiting protests against its authority and imposing a complete ban on free expression.
Conclusion
The protests, while ostensibly arising out of governance and economic issues rather than directed against the Pakistani administration per se, reveal a significant shift in local attitudes. Recent demonstrations indicate a gradual decline in pro-Pakistan sentiments among the populace, which were once prevalent in this terrain thanks to consistent propaganda by the state of Pakistan. However, now this strategy does not seem to work. This shift is now evident as the number of individuals expressing such sentiments has diminished considerably. During the latest rounds of protests and rallies, there was a notable absence of slogans or Pakistani flags in the demonstrations. In some places, in fact, Indian flags were shown and new slogans were raised saying Khudmukhatri ya Hindustan (we want autonomy or India). The ongoing mismanagement by the Pakistan military and federal government in ‘AJK’ and across the region (including Gilgit Baltistan) may soon lead to demands for increased autonomy. Furthermore, these sentiments are likely to escalate unless the Pakistan military and federal government reassess their actions in AJK.
Dr. Mohd. Usman Bhatti and Dr. Muneeb Yusuf are Research Analysts with a project in Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi, India
