Political Change in Sri Lanka: A Strategic Overview from India

Date
11-12-2024

India’s engagement with Sri Lanka’s newly elected government, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, underlines the country’s strategic priority within the framework of its Neighborhood First strategy and Vision SAGAR. Recognizing Sri Lanka’s strategic importance in the Indian Ocean region, New Delhi has taken a pragmatic approach aimed at strengthening economic, developmental, and security ties.

India has adopted a cautiously optimistic stance towards political change in Sri Lanka after Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the newly elected Sri Lankan president, assumed office. India sees this leadership change as an opportunity to strengthen relations disregarding the new president’s political past, and potential challenges to regional security dynamics― in case he seeks to change the contours of Sri Lanka’s foreign and security policy, as some sceptics would aver.[1]

Soon after the presidential election results were announced in the island nation on 22 September 2024, India’s High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Santosh Jha, became the first diplomat to congratulate Anura Kumara Dissanayake. This gesture highlighted the importance India places on this relationship and how closely New Delhi followed the elections.[2] Prime Minister Narendra Modi also congratulated him immediately and posted on X: “Congratulations, @anuradisanayake, on your victory…..Sri Lanka plays an important role in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vision SAGAR. I look forward to working closely with you to continue strengthening our multifaceted partnership for the benefit of our people and the entire region[3]

PM Modi’s congratulatory message was promptly answered by Dissanayake, who also pledged to cooperate. In a post on X, he stated “I appreciate your support and nice comments, Prime Minister Modi. I’m as dedicated to fortifying our countries’ relations as you are.” He then added, “By working together, we can improve this relationship for the benefit of our peoples and the entire region”.[4]

Following the presidential election, the Indian High Commissioner was among his first visitors. Dissanayake stated in a television interview that he was not anti-India and acknowledged that New Delhi had provided Sri Lanka with a significant financial and material boost amid a critical economic situation in 2022. He has, however, stated that environmental issues will decide his approach to a renewable energy facility in the north, which has been allotted to Adani Power Company.[5]

Enter Dissanayake

Anura Kumar Dissanayake, or popularly referred to as AKD, in acronymic form, in the media, is from Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and is now heading a coalition, the National People’s Power (NPP). The fact that he and his coalition partners have sought to address wider concerns about his rumoured pro-China leanings since the election indicates that there is a willingness to adopt a balanced foreign policy. They have communicated to New Delhi that they would not participate in the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries, and that Sri Lankan territory will not be used to undermine India’s national security. As the new president said, “We don’t want to be sandwiched, especially between China and India. Both countries are valued friends and, under an NPP government, we expect them to become close partners.” Professor Anil Jayantha, a member of the NPP’s national executive committee, emphasized the importance of engaging with India: “India is certainly our neighbour and a superpower. Our leader wants to deal with all major powers to stabilize the Sri Lankan economy”.[6]

Although earlier elections in Sri Lanka had an overly ethnic content, this election was mostly fought with a major focus on economic issues. Foreign policy agenda of the parties did not feature much in the electoral campaigns, implying that New Delhi is unlikely to become a major foreign policy focus in the foreseeable future. Sri Lanka will continue to rely on Indian backing for debt restructuring at the IMF and continued economic assistance to sustain its path of recovery.[7] Ambassador Yash Sinha, former Indian High Commissioner to Colombo, agrees: “For Sri Lankans, this election is a way of overcoming the trauma of recent economic hardships, a means of making their voices heard... India is not a factor.” Sinha also stated that AKD is not a stranger to India, saying, “The good part is that he is not completely unknown to us; he has visited before, and we look forward to engaging with him[8].

Many strategic experts observed that New Delhi has taken a strategic approach to its relationship with the island nation, most notably by asking AKD to visit in February 2025, perhaps anticipating his party’s victory in both presidential and parliamentary elections based on public sentiments.

Furthermore, although AKD subscribes to Marxist ideology, his views on economy have changed in recent years. He has advocated the idea of an open economy with checks. He has taken steps to restructure loss-making state-owned firms, rejecting the idea of full privatization. During his campaign, he had denied claims that his government would implement radical nationalization plans, adding, “There is a smear campaign against us, saying we will nationalize everything, even cows. We will help farmers improve and establish their own dairies. We won’t take over cows”.[9]

Furthermore, the NPP is a broad coalition composed of political parties, civil society groups, trade unions and intellectuals, including university professors and teachers.[10] They need to establish a consensus before taking any major decision, especially on the foreign policy front. It will not be easy, given the nature of their coalition, as they will have to bring everyone on board before pursuing any fundamental shift. There will be structural limitations on their decision making and consensus building. Therefore, one can say with certainty that there will be continuity in their foreign policy decisions with respect to New Delhi rather than any substantial shift.

Geostrategic concerns and regional security

Given Sri Lanka’s geostrategic location in the heart of Indian Ocean region and its closer geographical proximity to India, Sri Lanka becomes very important for India’s security interests. For New Delhi, Sri Lanka falls under the geostrategic framework of the “indivisible security construct,” which means any instability or rapid internal or external shifts in this country could have far-reaching consequences for India’s national security. Moreover, Sri Lanka is located close to southern India, where several of India’s vital security and scientific installations, such as nuclear power plants, space research centers, and naval bases are located. India’s primary concern has been ensuring that no foreign power, especially those it views as antagonistic, gains undue influence over Sri Lanka. As a result, India’s approach toward Sri Lanka has been to engage with whichever government—left, right or center — comes to power. India cannot afford strategic distance from this important neighbour.[11] Hence, for the foreseeable future, India will adopt the “policy of engagement” with Sri Lanka.[12]

The ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ and the SAGAR project (Security and Growth for All in the Region) serve as New Delhi’s overarching framework for engaging with all its neighbours, including Sri Lanka. The major purpose of the Neighbourhood First Policy is to engage in a non-reciprocal way and pursue generous developmental initiatives in these countries. This approach focuses on a wide range of developmental initiatives in different sectors, including health, education, people to people linkages, infrastructure development, and both digital and physical connectivity. Meanwhile, the “SAGAR outlook” emphasizes maritime cooperation by boosting the capacities and capabilities of the countries in the India’s maritime neighbourhood. The objective is to strengthen security, stimulate economic growth, enhance connectivity, and ensue maritime security in the region.[13]

Furthermore, New Delhi has supported full implementation of Sri Lanka’s 13th Amendment, which guarantees autonomy to Tamil regions. This is critical to addressing Tamil concerns in Sri Lanka, which is a delicate subject in Tamil Nadu. However, New Delhi’s goal this time has been to strike a balance between advocating for Tamil rights and respecting Sri Lanka’s sovereignty to avoid perceptions of interference in Sri Lanka’s internal affairs.[14] In recent interactions, New Delhi has downplayed the Tamil issue in its engagement with Colombo; nevertheless, the issue remains as a pressure tactic, to prevent any unfavorable policy shifts by the Sri Lankan government vis-à-vis the Tamils. India is cautious not to push Sri Lanka too hard on this matter, as it seeks to maintain cordial bilateral relations.

Developmental initiatives

During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, India gave more than $4 billion in loans, petrol, food, and currency swaps and positioned itself as a saviour when the island nation defaulted on its external debts. Earlier during the COVID pandemic, India provided Sri Lanka with vaccines, protective equipment, and other COVID-related support. Additionally, it played a vital role in securing a $2.9 billion bailout package for Sri Lanka from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).[15] These measures not only met Sri Lanka’s immediate needs, but also helped improve popular opinion about India within Sri Lanka, in contrast to growing criticism of China’s “debt-trap diplomacy”.[16]

Furthermore, New Delhi has pledged to support Sri Lanka’s economic recovery efforts through a range of initiatives, including a $61.5 million grant to fully develop Kankesanthurai Port and the conversion of portions of Sri Lanka’s $20 million debt into grants.[17] In addition, India is focused on energy cooperation, renewable energy exports, and digital public infrastructure initiatives to strengthen economic ties. India is also encouraging private sector investments and offering support in various sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, technology cooperation and dairy. The two countries have also inked a vision document last year, which guides their economic cooperation. Furthermore, New Delhi has also increased grants by 50 per cent to promote high-impact development initiatives in Sri Lanka. These initiatives seek to provide alternatives to Chinese strategic investments, promote goodwill, and secure India’s strategic interests in the region.[18]

India is investing in the East Container Terminal in Colombo, and has expressed an interest in the Trincomalee port which is seen as a counter to Chinese initiatives in Sri Lanka in this sector.[19] India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar put it succinctly:

“Structurally, our relationship with neighbours is much stronger than ever, thanks to increased regional connectivity— through power grids, fuel flows, rail lines, airways, and waterways. Every country has its politics, and there will be ups and downs. As the bigger neighbour, we often become part of their political debates, which is normal, and we must factor that into our policy without reacting to short-term events. When dealing in our immediate neighborhood, we must recognize that for some neighbours, China is a near or direct neighbor, making politics competitive. When Sri Lanka faced an economic crisis, we stepped in immediately with unconditional help, unlike others. Their new leaders acknowledge that India stood by them when others hesitated. Problems in the neighbourhood are unavoidable, but the solution is to invest in interdependence. One country might produce electricity, another refines petroleum, and we can share ports and tourists. This is how we build a region.”

New Delhi’s policy is to create stronger linkages and generate substantial goodwill through various initiatives, including the construction of ports, power grids, and renewable energy projects; fostering people-to-people ties; and promoting tourism. The objective is that, in the future, during any potential challenges in relations, these developmental initiatives will serve as stabilizing factors and guide the relationship towards a positive direction.

Defence and maritime cooperation

New Delhi continues to cooperate with Sri Lanka in the realm of maritime security, emphasizing the importance of countering growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. It is also attempting to tackle the complex issue of Indian fishermen entering Sri Lankan waters, highlighting the overlapping of humanitarian and security concerns on this matter. India’s security cooperation with Sri Lanka focuses on capacity building and collaborative training to deepen strategic ties.[20] Accordingly, specific capacity-building training has been designed for Sri Lankan soldiers at the country’s leading defence institutions. India also conducts joint military exercises (Mitra Shakti) and naval drills (SLINEX) with Sri Lankan defence forces. New Delhi’s key goals are the security of maritime communication lines and the countering Chinese influence in the region. To enhance the maritime domain awareness in the region, Sri Lankan coastal surveillance radars are integrated with the International Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) in Gurugram, India.[21]

Another key element of India’s neighbourhood policy involves applying diplomatic pressure to curb Chinese naval and research activities in the region. India and the US have expressed concerns over Chinese research vessels docking in Sri Lanka, leading Colombo to enforce a one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels.[22] Additionally, India is collaborating with QUAD members and other like-minded partners, such as the US and Japan, to jointly execute several infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka. Beyond bilateral engagement, India has taken a regional approach toward this nation and will continue working with like-minded partners to promote infrastructure development and high-quality projects in the foreseeable future. As China pursues opaque diplomacy under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by keeping terms of its agreements with Sri Lanka undisclosed and it is busy developing dual-use infrastructure with potential military applications, the objective is to offer Sri Lanka viable alternatives while countering China’s debt-trap and checkbook diplomacy.

In addition, India works with Sri Lanka through organizations such as the BIMSTEC regional grouping and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). Furthermore, India has broadened its maritime partnerships through mechanisms like the Colombo Security Conclave. This trilateral partnership between India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives focuses on maritime domain awareness, coordinated patrolling, and disaster relief initiatives. Such projects aim to increase India’s influence in the Indian Ocean in the face of rising geopolitical tensions.[23]

Conclusion

India’s engagement with Sri Lanka’s newly elected government, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, underlines the country’s strategic priority within the framework of its Neighborhood First strategy and Vision SAGAR. Recognizing Sri Lanka’s strategic importance in the Indian Ocean region, New Delhi has taken a pragmatic approach aimed at strengthening economic, developmental, and security ties. While Dissanayake’s leadership indicates a potential shift in Sri Lanka’s domestic and foreign policy dynamics, his administration has stated that it intends to retain a balanced approach to the India-China competition while also strengthening relations with India. India’s comprehensive response to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis has strengthened its standing as a trusted partner, in contrast to the unfavourable perceptions of China’s debt-trap diplomacy. New Delhi aims to strengthen goodwill and create interdependence through focused developmental measures, strategic investments, and people-to-people links, assuring long-term stability in bilateral relations. On the defence front, India’s emphasis on capacity building and maritime security demonstrates its determination to protect its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

As Sri Lanka navigates its internal challenges, including economic hardship and political change, India’s policy of sustained engagement— characterized by developmental assistance, maritime cooperation, and diplomatic flexibility— positions it as a key partner in shaping Sri Lanka’s future. This enduring relationship will remain the cornerstone of India’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, ensuring that its southern neighbour continues to align with New Delhi’s strategic and security interests.

*Imran Khurshid, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Kashmir, specializes in Indo-Pacific studies and South Asian security issues. He is a visiting research scholar associated with ICPS. The views expressed here are his own.


Endnotes

[1] Rathindra Kuruwita, “Sri Lanka’s Defense Cooperation with India: Strengthening Ties or Strategic Dependence?”, The Diplomat, 01 July 2024
[2] Kamakshi Wason, “A new chapter in India-Sri Lanka relations”, Hindustan Times, 24 September 2024,
[3] Ibid
[4]Sri Lanka President-designate Anura Kumara Dissanayake thanks PM Modi, highlights strengthening ties with India”, ANI, 23 September 2024
[5] Gurjit Singh, “Why India should not be worried about Sri Lanka’s new president Anura Kumara Dissanayake”, The Indian Express, 24 September 2024.
[6]Don’t want to be sandwiched, especially between China and India’: Sri Lankan new President Anura Kumara Dissanayake”–, Hindustan Times, 24 September 2024.
[7] Rajni Gamage, Kanika Kaur, “Sri Lanka Election 2024: Key Political Candidates and Campaigns”, NUS Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), 11 September 2024.
[8] Bula Devi, “AKD Will Balance India and China' ”, Rediff.com India News, 23 September 2024.
[9] Rathindra Kuruwita, “President Anura Kumara Dissanayake: A New Era of Reform Amid Economic Turmoil in Sri Lanka”,The Diplomat, 23 September 2024
[10] Ishara S. Kodikara, “Sri Lanka’s Political Shift: Dissanayake’s 2024 Victory Marks New Era”, Asia Society, 2024.
[11] Refer point 1
[12]Share your commitment to strengthen India-Sri Lanka ties’: Newly-elected President Dissanayake to PM ModiThe Indian Express, 23 September 2024.
[13] Harshita Kanodia, “India’s SAGAR Policy in the Indian Ocean Region”, Diplomatist 25 December 2020.
[14] Himal Kotelawala, “Sri Lanka president pledges full implementation of 13th amendment; TNA sceptical”, EconomyNext, 16 January 2023.
[15] Manu Pubby, “India and Sri Lanka strengthen ties: Assurance on security and commitment to economic partnership”,The Economic Times, 04 October 2024.
[16] Muskan Dhawan, “India’s Strategic Diplomacy: Countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Sri Lanka and Maldives”, CSSAME, 03 February 2024.
[17]Sitharaman: India continues to work closely with Sri Lanka on debt restructuring discussions: Nirmala Sitharaman”,The Economic Times, 02 November 2023.
[18] Ibid
[19] Refer point 15
[20] Refer point 1
[21] Refer Point 1
[22] The Maritime Executive, “Report: Sri Lanka Imposes One-Year Port Ban on Chinese Research Vessels“, 02 January 2024
[23] Refer point 17.