India-Pakistan relations have deteriorated due to Islamabad’s persistent deployment of cross-border terrorism. Despite initial peace initiatives by Prime Minister Modi, successive attacks like Uri and Pulwama have forced a paradigm shift in New Delhi's strategy. India now consistently retaliates with targeted kinetic strikes, such as Operation Sindoor, effectively neutralising Pakistan’s perceived "nuclear umbrella" and immunity. While backchannel contacts exist, meaningful rapprochement remains impossible until Pakistan abandons its zero-sum geopolitical outlook, halts its collusion with terror networks, and demonstrates credible action to foster regional stability.
Pakistan recently celebrated Youm-e-Marka-e-Haq, the anniversary of Operation Bunyan ul Marssos, with great fanfare. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that 10 May will henceforth be observed annually as Marka-e-Haq Day. The operation was launched in response to India’s Operation Sindoor on 7 May last year, during which India carried out airstrike targeting and destroying multiple terrorist infrastructures deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). These strikes were conducted in retaliation for the killing of 26 civilians in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, by the Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group. Indian response was limited, measured and targeted only locations/structures associated with terrorist groups out of sheer frustration with the Pakistani state’s inaction vis-à-vis the terror constituency it has nurtured over the years as an asymmetric tool against India. Despite the fact that India has shared undeniable proof of terrorists operating out of Pakistan on numerous occasions and the government in Islamabad has assured action against them, there is no evidence of perpetrators of terror being brought to justice. On the contrary, various terrorist groups targeting India have operated in collusion with the deep state which has been documented and commented on even by Pakistani observers in their local media.
Operation Sindoor was not first incident of its kind. India has, for about a decade now, responded kinetically to terrorist attacks carried out on its soil by Pakistan sponsored terrorist groups. In 2016, following the Uri attack in which 19 Indian soldiers lost their lives, India launched “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting and eliminating terrorists belonging to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and destroying several terror training camps. Similarly, in 2019, after the Pulwama suicide bombing carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, India conducted airstrikes deep inside terrorist camps in Balakot, located in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which was the first such Indian military action inside Pakistan since the 1971 war.
The Escalation Ladder
The 2008 Mumbai attacks, carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), in which more than 166 people, including six Americans, were killed, crossed India’s tolerance threshold regarding Pakistan-based terrorism. For India, it was a “9/11 moment,” and a stronger response from New Delhi became increasingly inevitable. Since then, the region has witnessed a gradual rise in the escalation ladder between the two countries. India has consistently maintained that terrorist attacks originating from Pakistan will no longer be tolerated.
Since the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government came to power in 2014, India has adopted a more consistent and uncompromising approach toward terrorism. Prime Minister Modi did attempt reconciliation with the government of Nawaz Shairf between 2014 and 2015 only to learn that the deep state had other plans in mind. Every action aimed at restart of dialogue and normalisation was met with spoiler act by Pakistan-based terrorist with known links to the agencies. Once such attempts failed, Prime Minister Modi came out with his uncompromising position which he has repeatedly conveyed on many occasions that India will no longer tolerate terrorism and that any act of terror will invite a strong response. Following the Uri attack in September 2016, Prime Minister Modi directed the Indian armed forces to retaliate in a manner that specifically targeted those responsible for terrorism while avoiding collateral damage to Pakistani civilians and military personnel. The Indian armed forces followed this directive during the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). However, Pakistan, facing embarrassment and humiliation, publicly denied that any such operation had taken place in PoK. Similarly, after the Pulwama attack, India struck JeM terror camps in Balakot. According to then Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, a large number of terrorists were killed in the operation, although Pakistan denied any casualties.
An analysis of India’s responses to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism reveals a clear upward trajectory. Each successive terrorist attack has been met with a stronger Indian response, involving more ambitious targets and deeper operational reach. With every escalation, both India and Pakistan have moved further up the escalation ladder. During Operation Sindoor, the two countries came close to a full-scale war. What makes this escalation particularly significant is that it challenges the long-held assumption that Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities would deter India from undertaking conventional military responses. Over the past few years, the perceived “nuclear umbrella” shielding Pakistan from Indian retaliation appears to have weakened considerably. Pakistan’s earlier sense of strategic immunity has diminished, and it increasingly recognises that India reserves the right to respond forcefully to provocations originating from Pakistani territory.
Possibilities of Rapprochement
As has been briefly stated earlier, despite several failed attempts in the past, the BJP government under Prime Minister Modi initially made efforts to improve relations with Pakistan. In 2014, Modi invited then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, along with other South Asian leaders, to attend his swearing-in ceremony. This was widely seen as an effort to initiate a new phase of peace and regional cooperation. Continuing this outreach, Prime Minister Modi made an unannounced stopover in Lahore while returning from Afghanistan in December 2015. It was believed that the visit was partly in response to Nawaz Sharif’s invitation to attend his granddaughter’s wedding and represented a symbolic gesture aimed at improving bilateral relations. However, the renewed warmth in India-Pakistan ties proved short-lived. Days after Modi’s pit-stop visit, terrorists struck in Pathankot. Relations deteriorated again after the Pakistani High Commissioner in India met Kashmiri separatist leaders knowing fully well that such meeting would not go down well with the new government in New Delhi. Subsequently, terrorist attacks in Uri, and Pulwama further reduced the prospects for rapprochement. Diplomatic ties weakened significantly, and even backchannel engagements became limited.
Nevertheless, reports suggest that some backchannel contacts continue. A recent report published by The Hindustan Times indicated that at least four backchannel meetings between Indian and Pakistani representatives have taken place in various world capitals.
Undoubtedly, such engagements are welcome developments. However, history demonstrates that numerous initiatives aimed at breaking the deadlock between the two neighbours have failed to produce lasting results. Direct and indirect talks, as well as bilateral and multilateral engagements, have repeatedly ended without meaningful progress. Unless Pakistan demonstrates its resolve to choose a path of peace and reconciliation forsaking its strategy of using terror as an instrument of its India-policy, no back-channel contact is likely to achieve substantial success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in one of his speeches, emphasised India’s commitment to peace, stating, “We did not give the world ‘Yuddha’ (war); we gave the world ‘Buddha’ (peace). India has always stood for peace and prosperity, and therefore India is going to strengthen its role in the 21st century.”
India has repeatedly shown willingness to improve relations with Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s security-centric and India-focused geopolitical outlook has constrained opportunities for regional integration. Pakistan’s approach to regional cooperation remains heavily tied to security considerations rather than broader economic and developmental goals. Its continued obsession with an India-centric security framework has undermined its ability to prioritise domestic development and fulfil the socio-economic aspirations of its people. Another negative consequence of Pakistan’s adoption of terror tactic vis-à-vis India has been hardening of sentiments of Indian population on the issue of pursuing peace with Pakistan. A very hardline vocal constituency has emerged in India that considers any suggestion of dialogue with Pakistan as seditious!
Pakistan must move beyond viewing its neighbourhood, both eastern and western borders, through a zero-sum lens. Short-term tactical gains achieved through strategic hostility are unlikely to serve Pakistan’s long-term interests. Any positive initiative between the two countries must aim to build confidence and stability in the region. Visible and credible action against terrorism should be the foremost priority. Pakistan, which has been both a sponsor and a victim of terrorism, has gained little strategically from supporting extremist groups. Organisations such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and various Baloch militant groups have themselves challenged the writ of the Pakistani state and created widespread instability within the country.
What Pakistan considers unacceptable on its western border with Afghanistan cannot be an acceptable policy framework on the eastern border with India. Terrorism, in all forms, must be abandoned if the region is to achieve long-term peace and prosperity. The long-standing “legacy issues” between India and Pakistan should, for the time being, be set aside until a more conducive environment emerges for constructive dialogue. Without such an environment, cooperation on trade, regional connectivity, and peace initiatives will remain difficult to prioritise. Both countries must work toward stable and forward-looking relations that include bilateral trade, economic cooperation, and a shared regional agenda. Without sustained efforts in these areas, the cycle of violence and hostility will continue, undermining the prosperity and stability of the entire region.
Dr Afroz Khan is an independent analyst of regional geopolitics based in New Delhi. The views expressed are his own.
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