India could play a pivotal role, given its excellent relations with the US and its pragmatic approach to issues in the region, which could ultimately lower tensions and benefit the Chabahar project in the sense that both countries could then find the atmosphere conducive to work closely together to tap the thus-far unrealised potential of the project.
The Chabahar project represents the most substantial partnership between Iran and India in recent years. It has positively impacted the bilateral relations between the two nations despite the challenges associated with efforts aimed at the full realisation of its potential. Both Iran and India possess similar regional objectives and strategies for their realization, as evidenced by this initiative and their collaborative efforts on the North-South International Corridor.
These projects reflect the shared regional interests of both nations and their aligned approaches to achieving these goals. Chabahar holds strategic importance for both and consequently, their partnership has persisted even as numerous international companies and countries withdrew from cooperation with Iran following the new US sanctions imposed in 2018. In line with its strategic objectives, India successfully secured an exemption from the US Treasury, allowing it to maintain its operations in the region. Thus, both parties exhibit a strong commitment to advancing this joint project, although they face technical challenges and a level of investment that falls short of Iranian expectations from India.
The prospects for this bilateral collaboration in Chabahar are intricately linked to various regional and international factors and developments.
Impact of developments in Afghanistan:
Over three years into the Taliban's rule, both political stability and security in Afghanistan remain precarious. The ongoing legitimacy crisis and the absence of an inclusive government, coupled with persistent concerns regarding the activities of extremist and terrorist groups, contribute to this uncertainty. Such a situation has led to hesitance among other nations and stakeholders to invest in significant transit projects. The Taliban's attempts to gain international recognition have not yielded success, as the preconditions set by the international community pose substantial obstacles to this endeavour.
Nevertheless, certain opportunities are emerging amidst these challenges. The United Nations is actively facilitating cooperation by organizing the Doha Sessions, which bring together international agencies, countries, and the Taliban, aiming to establish new avenues for collaboration without extending formal recognition. Similarly, a contact group led by Iran and Russia is pursuing comparable objectives. This indicates that international cooperation and support for Afghanistan from the global community, including the provision of essential resources for the Afghan people, will persist. Notably, transit corridors like Chabahar may play a crucial role in this context, offering a safe, cost-effective, and accessible route for trade and connectivity.
The good news is that the Taliban are open to enhancing transit cooperation with Iran, particularly regarding the Chabahar project. Currently, the Mashad-Herat railway is in operation. Recently, three significant delegations from the Taliban, along with representatives from the Afghan private sector, visited both Mashad and Chabahar. Following their visit to Chabahar, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the acting first deputy of the Prime Minister and leader of the Afghan delegation, formalized several memoranda of understanding with Iranian officials aimed at boosting transit activities through Chabahar to Afghanistan. Consequently, India's approach towards Afghanistan, which includes urging the Taliban to facilitate the movement of goods via Chabahar, appears to be both realistic and feasible, with Iran expressing its readiness to support and implement this initiative.
US policy towards Iran and Afghanistan:
The upcoming US administration under Donald Trump and its policies regarding Afghanistan and Iran may significantly impact the Chabahar project, both directly and indirectly. The strong ties between India and the United States could potentially benefit this initiative, particularly in navigating the challenges posed by US sanctions on Iran. However, it is essential to consider not only the administration's adversarial stance towards Iran but also the negative outlook of Trump's administration concerning developments in Afghanistan and the Taliban. While Trump remains the ultimate decision-maker in the White House, his appointees for key positions, including Secretaries of State and Defence, as well as the National Security Advisor, have openly criticised Biden's approach to Iran and Afghanistan, and expressed their opposition to the Taliban. This raises questions about the implications of the change in government in the US for the Chabahar project.
Silver Lining in the Cloud
In light of the uncertainties prevailing in the tumultuous Middle East, including the potential for conflicts such as a war between Iran and Israel, a historical analysis of Iran's approach to the region may provide a more optimistic perspective. It suggests that both Iran and the United States are unlikely to allow crises in the region to escalate. Despite facing significant pressure from the Axis of Resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, and particularly in Syria, as well as the loss of key bases in the Levant, Iran has demonstrated a tendency to refrain from exacerbating tensions, mirroring the cautious approach taken by the United States.
Amid the ongoing heightened tensions in the West Asian region, President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasizes Iran's commitment to maintaining restraint and engaging in dialogue with Western nations. In practical terms, Iran has initiated a process of rapprochement and collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the three European signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) concerning its nuclear programme. These developments have the potential to positively influence relations between Tehran and Washington, fostering an environment conducive to negotiations.
Furthermore, issues pertaining to Afghanistan and South Asia, particularly collaborative efforts to combat extremism and terrorism, may serve as a foundation for indirect cooperation among various nations, including Iran and the United States, reminiscent of past interactions. In this context, India could play a pivotal role, given its excellent relations with the US and its pragmatic approach to issues in the region, which could ultimately lower tensions and benefit the Chabahar project in the sense that both countries could then find the atmosphere conducive to work closely together to tap the thus-far unrealised potential of the project.
Dr Jafar Haghpanah teaches political science in the University of Tehran, Iran.
